On 2025-11-07 10:51:52, user Tatsuya Yamashita wrote:
Dear authors,
at first, congratulations to this important findings. This data, paired with other ancient DNA evidence, can further clarify the demographic patterns of the peopling of Eastern Eurasia and Oceania, as well as their interactions with archaic human groups. Different deeply branching Denisovan components can be very useful data points for possible migration routes and or population substructure scenarios.
In your pre-print, you argued for a possible earlier southern route into Oceania, followed by a later wave of the ancestors of South Asians (AASI) and East Asians, with East Asians via a possible northerly route: "This supports an early migration of the ancestors of Oceanians through South Asia followed by the later arrival of the ancestors of present-day South Asians. East Asians do not share this Denisovan component in their genomes, suggesting that their ancestors arrived independently, perhaps by a northerly route".
One major problem with this scenario is the observed genetic affinity between the different "basal Asian" populations (e.g. Tianyuan, Önge, Hoabinhian, Xingyi_EN, Jomon/Shiraho_27k, AASI, and Australasians/Oceanians such as Papuans); also known as "eastern non-Africans" (ENA) or "East Eurasian Core" (EEC). The aDNA data strongly suggest a single dispersal route and subsequent rapid diversification into multiple basal Asian lineages (presumably in the South-Southeast Asia region via a single Southern route).
E.g. Oceanians/Papuans can successfully be modeled (qpAdm/qpWave) as simply Önge-like + additional Denisovan; or alternatively as Tianyuan-like + additional Denisovan. They do not fit as outgroup to "West/East Eurasians" either, but are nested within the "Eastern" clade (e.g cluster with Önge, Tianyuan, or present-day East Asians).
Although it is possible to reproduce a signal affilated with a distinct earlier southern coastal route (proxied by ZlatyKun_45k); this wave however left only minor ancestry among present-day Oceanians/Papuans (and or South Asians), with the majority ancestry of them being derived from the same source as Önge or Tianyuan: e.g. ZlatyKun + Önge-like + extra Denisovan, in a 3–5%, 92–95%, and 2–3% ratio respectively. (qpGraph models allow higher "early ancestry" for Oceanians/Papuans: 12–24% when splitting before or at around the same time as ZlatyKun/Ranis, or up to 44% when splitting at the same time as Ust'Ishim.)
Beyond that, a northern route entry for the ancestors of East Asians seems to be only partially possible, as the majority ancestry of East Asians seems to be from an Önge-like source (except Önge also used a northern route entry).
This means that present-day eastern non-Africans (ENA) descend primarily from a single migration wave eastwards, presumably via a route South of the Himalayas; and which possibly absorbed an earlier less successfull wave, at least regionally (Oceania and South Asia).
This may also have happened via a more substructured wave: e.g. both a southern coastal route (along the coast of the Indian subcontinent) and a southern interior route (via an interior route along the southern Himalayan mountain range) into Southeast Asia and beyond. – It is however well possible that the southern coastal wave pre-dated the southern interior wave, and thus display different Denisovan signals. E.g. timely separated migrations waves of a shared clade.
Regional Denisovan admixture events (or their partial absence as in the case of Jomon HGs [see the recent paper by Jiaqi Yang et al. 2025 "An early East Asian lineage with unexpectedly low Denisovan ancestry"]) can be explained that way, without needing several different distinct waves, which would contradict the observed genetic affinities of the different Basal Asian lineages. The low Denisovan ancestry of Jomon hunter-gatherers may or may not be affilated with the Shiraho_27k specimen, who appearently contributed some ancestry to later Jomon. For more information on the Shiraho_27k specimen, please contact your co-author Svante Pääbo or Hideaki Kanzawa-Kiriyama.
Note that Tianyuan40k can successfully be modeled as Önge-like + IUP-affilated admixture (BachoKiro_IUP); which fits the presence of IUP material sites in nearby NW China and Mongolia. Such IUP admixture has also been noted to explain the observed affinity to the GoyetQ116-1 specimen in Europe, which similarly can be modeled as Kostenki14/Sunghir_UP + BachoKiro_IUP (see Hajdinjak et al. 2021 "Initial Upper Palaeolithic humans in Europe had recent Neanderthal ancestry").
It is possible that this Siberian IUP group absorbed the EA-specific Denisovan component and via its admixture into Tianyuan, contributed it to other Eastern Asians in lesser amount. – Present-day East Asians in turn can be successfully modeled as Tianyuan-like (c. 25%) + Önge-like (c. 75%); (see McColl et al. 2018 "The prehistoric peopling of Southeast Asia" for example). – Via Tianyuan-like or Denisovan-admixed IUP groups, this archaic ancestry may have also reached regions further West (as with the supposed Denisovan signal in Sunghir etc.).
You can also review Bennett et al. 2024 "Reconstructing the Human Population History of East Asia through Ancient Genomics", a recent summary paper on the peopling of Eastern Asia and beyond; as well as Tianyi Wang et al. 2025 "Prehistoric genomes from Yunnan reveal ancestry related to Tibetans and Austroasiatic speakers".
A summary of my points regarding your postulated "earlier southern route" for Oceanians and a possible "northerly route" for East Asians:
• The available genetic data strongly suggests a single shared migration wave for the primary ancestral source of all eastern non-Africans (Papuans, AASI, East Asians, Önge/Hoabinhian, and Tianyuan). The presence of multiple deeply branching EEC lineages in Southeast Asia and southern China suggest it to be a major place of diversification from a shared ancestral source.<br />
• Papuans/Oceanians (and AASI) may have limited amounts of admixture from an earlier wave, but primarily share ancestry with Önge and Tianyuan.<br />
• Tianyuan can be modeled as either an admixture between Önge-like (61–67%) and BachoKiro_IUP-like (33–39%) ancestries; or represents a deep split from the rest of eastern non-Africans; although with some geneflow into later East Asians.<br />
• Ancient and present-day East Asians can be modeled as primarily Önge-like (c. 75%) with Tianyuan-like admixture (c. 25%).<br />
• The different Denisovan introgression events, if not shared, may have happened regionally to explain the observed affinities, but the differences in Denisovan components among each group.
Below some qpAdm results on this (AADR v.62 + Ranis dataset); allsnps=TRUE:
Model1<br />
target: Papuan<br />
left: Hoabinhian, ZlatyKun, Denisovan<br />
right: Mbuti, Ranis13, Ust'Ishim, BachoKiro_IUP, Tianyuan, Önge, Kostenki14, Sunghir_UP<br />
Results: Hoabinhian: 93,9%; ZlatyKun: 3,2%; Denisovan: 2,9%;<br />
p-value: 0.061
Model2<br />
target: Papuan<br />
left: Japan_Jomon, ZlatyKun, Denisovan<br />
right: Mbuti, Ranis13, Ust'Ishim, BachoKiro_IUP, Tianyuan, Kostenki14, Sunghir_UP<br />
Results: Japan_Jomon: 94,1%; ZlatyKun: 2,4%; Denisovan: 3,5%;<br />
p-value: 0.094
Model3<br />
target: Tianyuan<br />
left: Önge, BachoKiro_IUP<br />
right: Mbuti, Ranis13, Ust'Ishim, Oase1_IUP, Papuan, Hoabinhian, Kostenki14, Sunghir_UP<br />
Results: Önge: 65,5%%; BachoKiro_IUP: 34,5%%;<br />
p-value: 0.170
Model4<br />
target: Japan_Jomon<br />
left: Önge, Amur33k<br />
right: Mbuti, Ranis13, Ust'Ishim, BachoKiro_IUP, Tianyuan, Papuan, Hoabinhian, Kostenki14, Sunghir_UP<br />
Results: Önge: 79,0%%; Amu33k: 21,0%;<br />
p-value: 0.053
Model5<br />
target: Han_Chinese<br />
left: Önge, Amur33k<br />
right: Mbuti, Ranis13, Ust'Ishim, BachoKiro_IUP, Tianyuan, Papuan, Hoabinhian, Kostenki14, Sunghir_UP<br />
Results: Önge: 73,6%%; Amu33k: 26,4%;<br />
p-value: 0.090
Etc.
(Önge = ONG Mondal; Jomon = JpOd181/274/282).
E.g. it is not likely that Oceanians were part of a distinct earlier wave into Oceania, separate from other mainland Asian groups, nor that East Asians reached East Asia along a distinct northern route (independently of Önge-like groups etc.). Next to qpAdm/qpWave or qpGraph models, f3/f4 statistics are quite clear on this. Papuans are (beyond their extra Denisovan ancestry and possible minor "earlier group" admixture) nested in eastern non-African diversity (e.g. EEC).
It is plausible that after the OoA exit, and the IUP/EEC dispersals from a Hub on the Persian plateau, Eastern non-Africans (ENA/EEC) shared a secondary Hub somewhere in Northwest India, from which Oceanians expanded first, via a coastal route towards Oceania. Along the coast of the Indian subcontinent (South India?), they absorbed the Deep Denisovan ancestry and continued to expand to Oceania. – Some time afterwards, the remainder ENA/EEC group (residual) expanded along an interior route South of the Himalayas into Southeast Asia and Southern China; not admixing with the Deep Denisovan group. – There, one branch split and head towards Japan (low Denisovan), while another group headed northwards coming into contact with IUP groups & the EA-specific Denisovan (Denisovan3-like) component (=Tianyuan_40k); while the remainder absorbed a local Denisovan group in Southern China or Southeast Asia (=Önge-like). – This Önge-like groups expanded back into South Asia/India, absorbing the group with Deep Denisovan introgression (becoming the AASI). The Önge-like groups staying in Southeast Asia became the Hoabinhians, while early East Asians formed along a cline of Tianyuan-like and Önge-like ancestries.
Of course the above scenario is just one of many possibilities; it is well possible that Oceanians used a southern route, while the ancestors of both East Asians and Önge used as northerly route. – Or any other scenario which can explain the aDNA data and genetic affinities.
My suggestion is to define a model which alignes with both aDNA data and archaic components (for ancient and present-day populations), as well as, if possible, archaeologic and paleoenvironmental evidence.
E.g. including a set of ancient and present-day groups to test on their Denisovan components and their overall genetic affinities (not just modern groups to prevent bias from ancient geneflow events): For South Asians: AASI-rich tribal groups from Southern India, such as Irula and Paniya; for SEA: Önge, Hoabinhians; for EA: the newly analyzed Xingyi_EN samples, Jomon, Longlin, Amur14k, Qihe3, Tianyuan and Amur33k, as well as present-day East/Southeas Asians; for Oceania: Papuans, Australians, and Aeta. Maybe a chart comparing shared/distinct Denisovan components and f3/f4 statistics of each test group to each other would help clarify the exact affinities, shared routes or geneflow events. Perhaps, your co-author Svante Pääbo can share informations on the Shiraho_27k specimen and its Denisovan components.
A strong model should explain the genetic data/affinities of ancient/present-day populations, their different Denisovan components, and in best case also include archaeologic and paleoenvironmental data. To determine the influence of ancient geneflow, comparison between ancient specimens could help (Tianyuan vs Önge vs Jomon vs Longlin vs Amur14k etc.).
I hope this information can help to tangle out some possible scenarios on the dispersal, contact and introgression events for the different deeply branching Denisovan components and present-day Asian populations. Or maybe inspire future studies on this topic.
I am looking forward for the publication of your paper and more exciting findings!
Thank you.
Yours sincerely,<br />
Yamashita Tatsuya